Victor Chakraborty

3/9/20232 min read

This year we saw one of the coldest winters in quite a few years that India has seen, the cold wave wiped out most of the country while the temperatures falling down constantly created a feeling of having a bone cracking winter. While the average global temperature has still been on a rise the 3 years of La nina (Colder Southern oscillation) kept a halt on the rising temperatures since the onset of La Nina in November 2020. The tropical sea water of the Pacific Ocean regulates the whole global climate. La nine Southern Oscillations often comes with more colder winters for India and drier winters while the El nino often occurs with a chance of shortage in rainfall along with drought like conditions especially in the plateau areas of the country

The past 8 years has been the warmest on record for the world since the Pre Industrial ages. The average global temperature has been recorded around 1.27 Celsius above the pre industrial ages temperature in 2022

It is agreed by all the weather models and meteorologists around the world that a increase of temperature to 1.5 Celsius above the pre industrial ages temperature can have drastic effects on climate. Now with the El Nino on its onset and temperature already 1.27 Celsius above normal there is a huge chance that the threshold temperature of not cross 1.5 Celsius will be breached this year.

For India this certainly means a few things - Lesser rains during rainy months, Long prevailing Heat waves , Crops failing due to droughts and possibility of at least 2 Cyclonic systems in the Bay of Bengal area between April to May.

With the spring barrier continuing to disrupt the proper calculation of the chances of El Niño and The lasting impact of the La Nina that’s ending its still on hold to understand when or how much will the El Nino act upon the global climate this year. Only time can tell.

According to most of the weather models the chances of El Nino returning in 2023 during the Monsoon period of India remains high. Chances of El Nino remains between 30-35% by around April to June but will become higher between August and September to around 55%

2016 was a El nino year for India and was considered one of the warmest year in India in last 8 years. That same year the average monsoon rainfall for the country ended with a deficit of around 3%

The sea surface temperature (SST) has been found to be around 0.4 celsius above normal already by March 2023 in the area 3.4 region. This above normal temperature indicates slight chances of El Nino arriving soon. The exact period of the onset of El Nino will be difficult to project now due to the spring barrier but will eventually clear up between April to May

EL NINO 2023 -

A climatic time bomb for INDIA


FIG 2- Denoting the above normal Sea surface Temperature (SST) of area 3.4 and 1+2, Source : WMO Update: El Niño may return | World Meteorological Organization